IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT AND CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY: EVIDENCE FROM POST RUSSIA-UKRAINE INVASION

Abstract

The intersection of climate change, geopolitical instability, and food security has emerged as a critical area of global concern. This study investigates the complex interplay between climate change and food security in the context of the Russia–Ukraine war, employing a quantitative econometric research design based on high-frequency weekly time-series data spanning April 2022 to February 2025. The sample consists of approximately 150 weekly observations, constructed using purposive sampling of post-invasion weeks to capture periods of heightened climatic and geopolitical stress. Utilizing an econometric approach grounded in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, the study applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, complemented by robustness checks using Newey–West HAC standard errors, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), and instrumental variable (IV-2SLS) estimation to address dynamic effects and potential endogeneity. The analysis reveals the presence of statistically significant non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationships between temperature and food security, and U-shaped effects of precipitation, confirming EKC dynamics in the climate–food nexus. The findings demonstrate that climatic variability, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict, has significantly disrupted food availability and access in vulnerable regions. The findings imply that policy responses should prioritize climate-resilient agricultural innovation, strengthened institutional frameworks, and diversification of food supply chains to reduce vulnerability to external shocks. It is therefore recommended that policymakers integrate climate adaptation strategies with governance reforms and conflict-sensitive food security planning, particularly in food-import-dependent developing economies affected by global geopolitical instability.